Arnold Palmer Invitational 2024: SB Nation’s Playing Through staff predicts winners

The PGA Tour’s ‘Florida Swing’ continues in the central part of the Sunshine State, where Arnold Palmer’s Bay Hill Club & Lodge awaits.

Sixty-nine players comprise this week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational, with nine players in the top 10 of the Official World Golf Rankings (OWGR) set to tee it up.

This tournament rarely disappoints, as it entertained golf fans again in 2023.

Kurt Kitayama prevailed through harsh conditions and won his maiden PGA Tour title by fending off Rory McIlroy, Harris English, Scottie Scheffler, and Jordan Spieth.

After hitting his drive out-of-bounds on the par-4 9th, Kitayama, the 54-hole leader, made a triple bogey, dropping three shots and opening the door for others. But he steadied the ship on the back nine, playing even par golf until he arrived at the tough par-3 17th. Kitayama hit a beautiful tee shot to 14 feet and calmly rolled it in for a birdie. That got him back to 9-under for the championship.

He then made a pressure-packed par at the 18th, winning by a stroke.

Who will prevail this time around? The Playing Through crew has an idea.

Here are their picks:

Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images

Kendall Capps – Senior Editor

I’m predicting the true breakout party of Ludvig Åberg at Bay Hill.

This course is one of the most challenging tracks on the PGA Tour. Since several changes were made around the greens five years ago, Bay Hill has ranked within the top five of the most difficult courses on tour.

Measuring over 7400 yards, driving distance is paramount. But more important is driving accuracy, as the the thick rough that lines these fairways are reminiscent of U.S. Open atmospheres.

Only Rory McIlroy, Cameron Young, and Åberg are elite in both categories. But knowing Åberg posted a 24th place finish in his Arnold Palmer Invitational debut last year, already has a win and a 2nd place finish in the Southeast on Bermuda grass, and is in form (he was robbed of a final round chance at Pebble Beach), there is no better spot for Ludvig to announce himself to the world than at Arnie’s tournament.

Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images

Jack Milko – Staff Writer

Something tells me that Matt Fitzpatrick will prevail at Bay Hill, a course where he has had much success.

In 2019, Fitzpatrick held the 54-hole lead by himself and entered the final round paired with Rory McIlroy in the last group. But Francesco Molinari lapped him with an 8-under 64 and won by two shots.

Since then, the 2022 U.S. Open champion has tied for 9th, 10th, 9th, and 14th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. If not for a poor 4-over 76 in his third round last year, Fitzpatrick likely would have vied for the title. He finished five behind Kurt Kitayama.

Despite that, the Englishman ranked 6th in strokes gained off the tee a year ago at Bay Hill, a course that places a premium on the tee ball.

Although Fitzpatrick ranks 46th in total driving this season, his prior success at Arnie’s Place leads me to believe he will re-discover the magic that led him to glory at Brookline.

Plus, he looked close at last week’s Cognizant Classic, where he tied for 21st. He recorded only four bogeys all week, but two double bogeys during the first and second rounds did him in.

Nevertheless, I like him to bounce back and mitigate his mistakes on a track he plays well at, as Fitzpatrick wins for the first time since last year’s RBC Heritage at Harbor Town.

Photo by Douglas P. DeFelice/Getty Images

Savannah Leigh Richardson – Staff Writer

I am once again going with Viktor Hovland to win this week.

The Arnold Palmer Invitational will mark Hovland’s first tournament since the Genesis Invitational, where he tied for 19th.

He is feeling refreshed, and the 4th-ranked player in the world is ready to put together four complete rounds again.

Plus, he has had success at Bay Hill in the past. His runner-up finish in 2022 is in the back of my mind. Only 10 players finished under par that week, as Scheffler ultimately prevailed by one shot over Hovland, Tyrrell Hatton, and Billy Horschel.

Then, last year, the 2023 FedEx Cup champion found himself in contention yet again, entering the final round trailing Kurt Kitayama by one shot. But an opening bogey, followed by an unforced double bogey at the 8th, ended his chances.

He signed for a 3-over 75 during the final round, finishing four behind Kitayama.

Despite that, this place fits Hovland’s game well. He ranked second in strokes gained off the tee a year ago, and I like him to succeed with the big stick again.

Plus, he has had three wins since his final-round stumble here a year ago. He has learned how to win, and I think he does just that this week.

Photo by Harry How/Getty Images

Who do you think wins this week? Let us know in the comments below or at @_PlayingThrough on all major social media platforms.

Jack Milko is a golf staff writer for SB Nation’s Playing Through. Be sure to check out @_PlayingThrough for more golf coverage. You can follow him on Twitter @jack_milko as well.